Yeah, you heard me: I encourage you to read it with an open but critical mind. Sit down, this is going to take a while.

The reason is that central banks react to variables, such as inflation and the output gap, which are endogenous to monetary policy shocks. Endogeneity implies a correlation between regressors and the error term, and hence, an asymptotic bias.

In principle, Instrumental Variables IV estimation can solve this endogeneity problem. In practice, IV estimation poses challenges as the validity of potential instruments also depends on other economic relationships. We argue in favor of OLS estimation of monetary policy rules.

To that end, we show analytically in the three-equation New Keynesian model that the asymptotic OLS bias is proportional to the fraction of the variance of regressors accounted for by monetary policy shocks. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we then show that this relationship also holds in a quantitative model of the U.

As monetary policy shocks explain only a small fraction of the variance of regressors typically included in monetary policy rules, the endogeneity bias is small. Using simulations, we show that, for realistic sample sizes, the OLS estimator of monetary policy parameters outperforms IV estimators.Preliminary versions of economic research.

Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand Versus Supply in the Wake of the Financial Crisis.

financial obligations in the next 12 months. The estimated average asset correlation is 20% while the average default correlation is around % across farms in the pool. The estimated average asset correlation is clearly higher than the reported average asset correlation of 16% by KMV‟s risk classing (Lopez ).

ASSET CORRELATION, REALIZED DEFAULT CORRELATION, AND PORTFOLIO CREDIT RISK 5 1 INTRODUCTION The three most important drivers in determining portfolio credit risk are probability of default (PD), loss given default. Complexity characterises the behaviour of a system or model whose components interact in multiple ways and follow local rules, meaning there is no reasonable higher instruction to define the various possible interactions..

The term is generally used to characterize something with many parts where those parts interact with each other in multiple ways, culminating in a higher order of emergence.

This is also the approach taken for predicting tides along coasts (for example, the well-known tide tables), where the driver (tidal forces) is known, but the calculation of the sea-level response from first principles is so complex that semi-empirical .

default correlation between two credit risks as the correlation coefﬁcient between their survival times. Then we argue why a copula function approach should be used to specify the joint distribution of survival.

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Credit Default Swaps: Dubious Instruments – Harvard Business Law Review (HBLR)